Mariners at Marlins
SEA4–
MIA8Last play · Dominic Canzone flies out to left fielder Griffin Conine.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SEA 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Griffin Conine homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +19% Marlins
8Dominic Canzone homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Randy Arozarena scores.4–8
7Leo Jiménez grounds out, second baseman Cole Young to pitcher Michael Rucker. Esteury Ruiz scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.2–8
7Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Griffin Conine scores. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd.2–7
5Randy Arozarena homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.2–6
4Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Otto Lopez scores.1–6
4Otto Lopez triples (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Leo Jiménez scores. Liam Hicks scores.1–5
4Marlins challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Liam Hicks reaches on a fielder's choice. Jakob Marsee scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Colt Emerson. Missed catch error by shortstop Colt Emerson, assist to first baseman Josh Naylor.1–3
2Liam Hicks doubles (9) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Jakob Marsee scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.