Guardians at Marlins
Last play · Jakob Marsee flies out to left fielder Steven Kwan.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CLE 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 0 MIA
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase DeLauter homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Brayan Rocchio scores. (inning 4) — -26% Guardians
7Leo Jiménez homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
6Heriberto Hernández homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
5Travis Bazzana out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Austin Hedges scores. Steven Kwan to 2nd.3–0
4Chase DeLauter homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Brayan Rocchio scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
