Guardians at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja flies out to left fielder Steven Kwan.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CLE 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 0 MIA
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Steven Kwan doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Gabriel Arias scores. Petey Halpin scores. (inning 4) — -26% Guardians
8Patrick Bailey doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Kyle Manzardo scores. Kahlil Watson scores.4–1
7Liam Hicks singles on a soft line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Joe Mack scores.2–1
4Steven Kwan doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Gabriel Arias scores. Petey Halpin scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
