Guardians at Marlins
Last play · Otto Lopez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Otto Lopez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CLE 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 1 MIA
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brayan Rocchio homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -18% Guardians
9Griffin Conine homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
9Chase DeLauter homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.5–1
7Kahlil Watson singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez, deflected by pitcher Lake Bachar. Travis Bazzana scores. Kyle Manzardo to 2nd.4–1
5Brayan Rocchio homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
3Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. Heriberto Hernández scores.2–1
1Kyle Manzardo singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Brayan Rocchio scores.2–0
1Brayan Rocchio singles on a ground ball to right fielder Javier Sanoja. Travis Bazzana scores. Brayan Rocchio to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
