Padres at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja flies out to right fielder Jase Bowen.
Win probability
Marlins0%
SD 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 MIA
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores. Ty France out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Heriberto Hernández to second baseman Xavier Edwards. (inning 3) — -26% Padres
9Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.7–2
8Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Esteury Ruiz scores. Otto Lopez out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Jackson Merrill to third baseman Manny Machado.6–2
8Jase Bowen singles on a line drive to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.6–1
8Ty France singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jake Cronenworth scores.4–1
7Gavin Sheets out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jackson Merrill scores.3–1
3Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Gavin Sheets. Esteury Ruiz scores. Jakob Marsee out at 2nd. Jakob Marsee out at 2nd, pitcher Randy Vásquez to shortstop Xander Bogaerts.2–1
3Ty France singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores. Ty France out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Heriberto Hernández to second baseman Xavier Edwards.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
