Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Edmundo Sosa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
PHI 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 1 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers flies out sharply to center fielder Justin Crawford. (inning 8) — +12% Marlins
1Kyle Stowers homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
