Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Trea Turner flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
PHI 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 6 – 3 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd. (inning 7) — +38% Marlins
8Griffin Conine homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Stowers scores.6–8
7Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.6–6
7Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Esteury Ruiz scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.6–4
5Heriberto Hernández homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Brian Navarreto scores.6–3
5Otto Lopez grounds out, shortstop Edmundo Sosa to first baseman Bryce Harper. Esteury Ruiz scores.6–1
5Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryce Harper scores.6–0
5Bryce Harper triples (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Bryson Stott scores.5–0
5Trea Turner homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
