Angels at Marlins
LAA4–
MIA3Last play · Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Umpire reviewed (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Javier Sanoja doubles (24) on a line drive to left fielder Jose Siri, deflected by third baseman Denzer Guzman. Leo Jiménez out at home on the throw, left fielder Jose Siri to catcher Tyler Heineman.
Win probability
Marlins0%
LAA 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 1 – 1 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Schanuel homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Mike Trout scores. (inning 7) — -31% Angels
9Leo Jiménez singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Agustín Ramírez scores.4–3
7Nolan Schanuel homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Mike Trout scores.4–2
7Mike Trout reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Josh Ekness. Josh Lowe scores.2–2
6Kyle Stowers singles on a fly ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Jakob Marsee scores. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd.1–2
4Kyle Stowers walks. Owen Caissie scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. Esteury Ruiz to 2nd.1–1
1Mike Trout homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.