Angels at Marlins
LAA3–
MIA12Last play · Zach Neto lines out to second baseman Xavier Edwards.
Win probability
Marlins100%
LAA 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 2 – 10 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Denzer Guzman. Xavier Edwards scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Nolan Schanuel. (inning 1) — +22% Marlins
9Nolan Schanuel singles on a fly ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Wade Meckler scores.3–12
8Griffin Conine homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.2–12
7Leo Jiménez grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Denzer Guzman. Joe Mack scores. Jakob Marsee out at 3rd. Javier Sanoja to 2nd. Leo Jiménez to 1st.2–11
5Kyle Stowers singles on a line drive to center fielder Jose Siri. Jakob Marsee scores. Javier Sanoja scores.2–10
5Javier Sanoja singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jose Siri. Owen Caissie scores. Joe Mack scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. Javier Sanoja to 2nd.2–8
5Griffin Conine homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Otto Lopez scores.2–6
4Javier Sanoja singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wade Meckler. Owen Caissie scores. Agustín Ramírez to 2nd.2–4
2Jose Siri homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.