Angels at Marlins
Last play · Moisés Ballesteros strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Marlins100%
LAA 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 0 – 7 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xavier Edwards doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Owen Caissie scores. Javier Sanoja scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd. (inning 3) — +23% Marlins
5Heriberto Hernández doubles (13) on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Otto Lopez scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.0–7
5Griffin Conine singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Xavier Edwards scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.0–6
5Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Jakob Marsee scores.0–5
3Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wade Meckler. Jakob Marsee scores. Xavier Edwards scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.0–4
3Xavier Edwards doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Owen Caissie scores. Javier Sanoja scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
