Pirates at Marlins
Last play · Spencer Horwitz grounds out to first baseman Graham Pauley.
Win probability
Marlins100%
PIT 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / +103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Esteury Ruiz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 3) — +11% Marlins
5Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jacob Gonzalez. Esteury Ruiz scores. Xavier Edwards to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Jacob Gonzalez.0–2
3Esteury Ruiz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
