Nationals at Marlins
Last play · José Tena grounds out, shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Griffin Conine.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+172 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Griffin Conine scores. Owen Caissie scores. (inning 1) — +17% Marlins
5Dylan Crews doubles (12) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee, deflected by right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Daylen Lile scores.2–4
4Jakob Marsee homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
4José Tena singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez. Abimelec Ortiz scores. Throwing error by shortstop Otto Lopez.1–3
2Heriberto Hernández homers (19) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
1Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Griffin Conine scores. Owen Caissie scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
