Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Agustín Ramírez scores. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 0 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+132 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jacob Young scores. Daylen Lile to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% Nationals
9Javier Sanoja singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Agustín Ramírez scores. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.2–3
9Daylen Lile singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jacob Young scores. Daylen Lile to 2nd.2–2
8Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Javier Sanoja scores.1–2
8Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Jakob Marsee scores.1–1
6Keibert Ruiz homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
