Red Sox at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Marlins0%
BOS 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 1 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-124 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Anthony Seigler triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Eli White scores. (inning 9) — -34% Red Sox
9Nick Sogard singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Anthony Seigler scores.4–2
9Anthony Seigler triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Eli White scores.3–2
8Caleb Durbin flies out to right fielder Griffin Conine.2–2
7Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Otto Lopez scores. Heriberto Hernández to 3rd. Owen Caissie to 2nd.1–2
5Mickey Gasper doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jarren Duran scores.1–1
2Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Jakob Marsee scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
