Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Abimelec Ortiz grounds out softly, catcher Joe Mack to first baseman Griffin Conine.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+147 / -158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xavier Edwards singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Otto Lopez scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Heriberto Hernández to 2nd. (inning 5) — +25% Marlins
8Joe Mack grounds into a force out, second baseman José Tena to shortstop Nasim Nuñez. Jakob Marsee scores. Griffin Conine out at 2nd. Joe Mack to 1st.2–6
6Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Griffin Conine scores.2–5
6Joe Mack doubles (8) on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Jakob Marsee scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.2–4
6Jorbit Vivas doubles (9) on a fly ball to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Keibert Ruiz scores.2–3
5Xavier Edwards singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Otto Lopez scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Heriberto Hernández to 2nd.1–3
4Dylan Crews doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Daylen Lile scores.1–1
1Heriberto Hernández doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Agustín Ramírez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
