Red Sox at Marlins
Last play · Brian Navarreto grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Marlins0%
BOS 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 1 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-140 / +131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran hits a grand slam (18) to right center field. Willson Contreras scores. Jahmai Jones scores. Andruw Monasterio scores. (inning 11) — -53% Red Sox
11Jarren Duran hits a grand slam (18) to right center field. Willson Contreras scores. Jahmai Jones scores. Andruw Monasterio scores.7–3
10Javier Sanoja strikes out swinging. Brian Navarreto scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Javier Sanoja to 1st. Wild pitch by pitcher Wyatt Olds.3–3
10Ceddanne Rafaela grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Leo Jiménez.3–2
6Heriberto Hernández homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
6Mickey Gasper homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
5Brian Navarreto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Leo Jiménez scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd. Esteury Ruiz to 2nd.1–1
2Mickey Gasper homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
