Red Sox at Marlins
Last play · Connor Wong grounds out, shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Griffin Conine.
Win probability
Marlins100%
BOS 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-129 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joe Mack walks. (inning 2) — +10% Marlins
8Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Esteury Ruiz scores.0–4
8Owen Caissie reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Nick Sogard. Otto Lopez scores. Owen Caissie to 2nd.0–3
2Joe Mack walks.0–2
1Heriberto Hernández singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Kyle Stowers scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
