Mets at Marlins
Last play · Pitcher Austin Warren picks off Javier Sanoja at 1st on throw to first baseman Brett Baty.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 7 – 4 MIA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Graham Pauley homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores. Owen Caissie scores. (inning 2) — +36% Marlins
6A.J. Ewing singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Marcus Semien scores.9–4
6Marcus Semien doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Carson Benge scores.8–4
4A.J. Ewing doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Juan Soto scores. Carson Benge scores.7–4
4Bo Bichette singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.5–4
3Francisco Alvarez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Marcus Semien scores.4–4
2Graham Pauley homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores. Owen Caissie scores.3–4
2Javier Sanoja triples (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Jakob Marsee scores.3–1
2Nick Morabito singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Brett Baty scores. Nick Morabito to 2nd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
