Nationals at Brewers
Last play · David Hamilton grounds out, second baseman Jorbit Vivas to first baseman Curtis Mead.
Win probability
Brewers0%
WSH 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -207
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Lockridge. CJ Abrams scores. Joey Wiemer to 3rd. (inning 9) — -34% Nationals
9James Wood doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Jorbit Vivas scores. Drew Millas to 3rd.7–3
9Drew Millas hits a sacrifice bunt. Nasim Nuñez scores. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd. Drew Millas to 1st.6–3
9Jorbit Vivas hits a sacrifice bunt. Joey Wiemer scores. Jorbit Vivas to 1st. Throwing error by pitcher Trevor Megill.5–3
9Luis García Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Lockridge. CJ Abrams scores. Joey Wiemer to 3rd.4–3
7Jacob Young doubles (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Luis García Jr. scores. Jacob Young out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Sal Frelick to second baseman Brice Turang to third baseman Luis Rengifo.3–3
1Jake Bauers homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Brice Turang scores. Garrett Mitchell scores.2–3
1CJ Abrams doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Curtis Mead scores.2–0
1Curtis Mead singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
