Rays at Brewers
TB2–
MIL6Last play · Carson Williams grounds out softly to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
TB 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Brice Turang singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Gary Sánchez scores. Brandon Lockridge scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Brice Turang to 2nd. Brice Turang advances to 2nd, on a missed catch error by center fielder Cedric Mullins, assist to right fielder Jake Fraley. (inning 5) — +45% Brewers
8Jake Bauers homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
6Brandon Lockridge doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Jake Bauers scores.2–5
6Gary Sánchez homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
5Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Brice Turang singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Gary Sánchez scores. Brandon Lockridge scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Brice Turang to 2nd. Brice Turang advances to 2nd, on a missed catch error by center fielder Cedric Mullins, assist to right fielder Jake Fraley.2–3
5Nick Fortes homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
1Jonathan Aranda homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.