Rays at Brewers
Last play · Ryan Vilade strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
TB 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 2 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Joey Ortiz scores. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 2nd. (inning 8) — +34% Brewers
8David Hamilton singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Garrett Mitchell scores.2–8
8Blake Perkins grounds out to first baseman Junior Caminero. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd.2–7
8Garrett Mitchell doubles (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd.2–6
8Christian Yelich singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Joey Ortiz scores. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 2nd.2–4
3Brice Turang homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. David Hamilton scores.2–2
3Yandy Díaz homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Richie Palacios scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
