Blue Jays at Brewers
Last play · Kazuma Okamoto grounds out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
TOR 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 1 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice bunt, catcher Tyler Heineman to second baseman Lenyn Sosa. Garrett Mitchell scores. David Hamilton to 2nd. (inning 7) — +22% Brewers
7Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice bunt, catcher Tyler Heineman to second baseman Lenyn Sosa. Garrett Mitchell scores. David Hamilton to 2nd.1–2
4Luis Rengifo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Davis Schneider. Brice Turang scores.1–1
3Tyler Heineman out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Brandon Sproat to first baseman Luis Rengifo. Andrés Giménez scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
