Pirates at Brewers
Last play · William Contreras flies out sharply to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
Win probability
Brewers0%
PIT 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 0 MIL
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Konnor Griffin homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — -14% Pirates
8Konnor Griffin singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales scores. Billy Cook to 3rd.6–0
6Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Ryan O'Hearn scores.4–0
5Oneil Cruz reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Jake Bauers. Spencer Horwitz scores. Konnor Griffin to 3rd.3–0
4Nick Gonzales singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Brandon Lockridge to third baseman Luis Rengifo.2–0
3Konnor Griffin homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
