Pirates at Brewers
Last play · Tyler Black strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers0%
PIT 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 2 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to left fielder Greg Jones. Nick Yorke scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Fielding error by left fielder Greg Jones. (inning 10) — -29% Pirates
10Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to left fielder Greg Jones. Nick Yorke scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Fielding error by left fielder Greg Jones.6–3
10Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to left fielder Greg Jones. Henry Davis scores. Nick Yorke to 2nd.4–3
6Sal Frelick out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jake Bauers scores.3–3
6Spencer Horwitz out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Greg Jones. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.3–2
4Sal Frelick out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Tyler Black scores.2–2
4Garrett Mitchell grounds out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Jake Bauers scores. Tyler Black to 3rd.2–1
4Konnor Griffin singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Nick Gonzales scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.2–0
4Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
