Pirates at Brewers
Last play · Spencer Horwitz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
PIT 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gary Sánchez grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. William Contreras scores. (inning 4) — +13% Brewers
4Brandon Lockridge singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Luis Rengifo scores. David Hamilton scores.0–5
4David Hamilton doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Sal Frelick scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd.0–3
4Luis Rengifo singles on a line drive to center fielder Billy Cook. Jake Bauers scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.0–2
4Gary Sánchez grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. William Contreras scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
