D-backs at Brewers
Last play · Tim Tawa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
AZ 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 8 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Rengifo doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 1) — +16% Brewers
8Tyler Black walks. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Jake Bauers to 2nd.1–13
7Sal Frelick homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–12
6Tyler Black doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores.1–11
6Jake Bauers grounds out to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Garrett Mitchell scores. Brice Turang to 3rd. William Contreras to 2nd.1–9
4William Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Garrett Mitchell scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.1–8
4Brice Turang singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. David Hamilton scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd.1–7
4Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a fly ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Corbin Carroll scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.1–6
3Luis Rengifo grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Jake Bauers scores. Tyler Black to 2nd.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
