Yankees at Brewers
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
NYY 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-128 / +107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lockridge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Gary Sánchez scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd. Luis Rengifo to 2nd. (inning 2) — +10% Brewers
7William Contreras singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Joey Ortiz scores.0–6
3Brandon Lockridge singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Andrew Vaughn scores.0–5
2Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Brandon Lockridge scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.0–4
2Joey Ortiz grounds into a force out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Luis Rengifo scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd. Sal Frelick out at 2nd. Joey Ortiz to 1st.0–3
2Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Andrew Vaughn scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd. Brandon Lockridge to 2nd.0–2
2Brandon Lockridge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Gary Sánchez scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
