Yankees at Brewers
Last play · William Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Aaron Judge. Luis Rengifo scores.
Win probability
Brewers100%
NYY 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 0 MIL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to shortstop José Caballero. Garrett Mitchell scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd. (inning 10) — +42% Brewers
10William Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Aaron Judge. Luis Rengifo scores.3–4
10Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to shortstop José Caballero. Garrett Mitchell scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.3–3
10Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Max Schuemann scores. Aaron Judge out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Garrett Mitchell to first baseman Jake Bauers to third baseman Luis Rengifo.3–2
8William Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Brice Turang scores.2–2
7Jake Bauers homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
4Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to third baseman Luis Rengifo. Amed Rosario scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. José Caballero to 2nd.2–0
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
