Padres at Brewers
Last play · Jackson Chourio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers0%
SD 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 1 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Johnson scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 9) — -78% Padres
9Gavin Sheets homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Johnson scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.3–1
5Brice Turang grounds into a force out, first baseman Ty France to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Sal Frelick scores. Jackson Chourio out at 2nd. Brice Turang to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
