Padres at Brewers
Last play · Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
SD 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Frelick singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd. (inning 4) — +29% Brewers
8Miguel Andujar doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.4–6
6Miguel Andujar homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.3–6
4Brice Turang doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Sal Frelick scores. David Hamilton scores.2–6
4Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Garrett Mitchell scores.2–4
4Sal Frelick singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.2–3
4Nick Castellanos singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Xander Bogaerts scores. Gavin Sheets scores.2–1
3Joey Ortiz homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
