Padres at Brewers
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Brewers100%
SD 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 7 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Rengifo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. William Contreras scores. Gary Sánchez scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd. (inning 1) — +16% Brewers
9Sung-Mun Song grounds into a force out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to second baseman David Hamilton. Nick Castellanos scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd. Bryce Johnson out at 2nd. Sung-Mun Song to 1st.1–7
4Luis Rengifo singles on a line drive to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Andrew Vaughn scores.0–7
2Andrew Vaughn singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Gary Sánchez scores.0–6
2Gary Sánchez doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Brice Turang scores.0–5
2Brice Turang doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. David Hamilton scores.0–4
1Luis Rengifo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. William Contreras scores. Gary Sánchez scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd.0–3
1Andrew Vaughn walks. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Gary Sánchez to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
