Dodgers at Brewers
Last play · Jackson Chourio called out on strikes.
Win probability
Brewers0%
LAD 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 4 – 3 MIL
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Teoscar Hernández homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Andy Pages scores. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 4) — -38% Dodgers
9Shohei Ohtani singles on a line drive to right fielder Jackson Chourio. Miguel Rojas scores. Santiago Espinal to 3rd.11–3
9Santiago Espinal doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Blake Perkins. Teoscar Hernández scores. Miguel Rojas to 3rd.10–3
9Teoscar Hernández singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jackson Chourio. Freddie Freeman scores. Will Smith scores.9–3
8Miguel Rojas hits a sacrifice bunt. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 2nd. Miguel Rojas to 1st.7–3
8Teoscar Hernández singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Andy Pages scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd.6–3
8Will Smith singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Freddie Freeman scores. Andy Pages to 2nd.5–3
4Teoscar Hernández homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Andy Pages scores. Kyle Tucker scores.4–3
4Andy Pages doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Bauers. Freddie Freeman scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
