Cardinals at Brewers
Last play · Nolan Gorman flies out to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Win probability
Brewers100%
STL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+178 / -218
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 4) — +19% Brewers
5Garrett Mitchell homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores.0–6
5William Contreras doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang to 3rd.0–3
4Jake Bauers homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
