Cardinals at Brewers
Last play · Alec Burleson pops out to third baseman Luis Rengifo.
Win probability
Brewers100%
STL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+192 / -237
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Yelich homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. William Contreras scores. (inning 1) — +16% Brewers
7Andrew Vaughn hits a ground-rule double (6) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Brice Turang scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd.1–5
6Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Torres. Andrew Vaughn scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.1–4
6Iván Herrera grounds out, third baseman Luis Rengifo to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.1–3
1Christian Yelich homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. William Contreras scores.0–3
1William Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Torres. Jackson Chourio scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
