Giants at Brewers
Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Win probability
Brewers100%
SF 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+218 / -272
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 1) — +24% Brewers
8Brice Turang singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Jackson Chourio scores.3–8
8Jackson Chourio doubles (9) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Christian Yelich scores.3–7
8Christian Yelich singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Garrett Mitchell scores. Sal Frelick scores.3–6
8Jung Hoo Lee singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Bryce Eldridge scores. Daniel Susac to 2nd.3–4
8Bryce Eldridge singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Luis Arraez scores.2–4
7Brice Turang singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Victor Bericoto. David Hamilton scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd.1–4
6Willy Adames homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
1Jake Bauers homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
