Giants at Brewers
SF12–
MIL9Last play · David Hamilton flies out sharply to center fielder Jonah Cox.
Win probability
Brewers0%
SF 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 6 – 3 MIL
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Casey Schmitt homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 1) — -10% Giants
9Luis Rengifo singles on a line drive to left fielder Drew Gilbert. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.12–9
9Sal Frelick grounds into a force out, first baseman Casey Schmitt to shortstop Willy Adames. Gary Sánchez scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Blake Perkins out at 2nd. Sal Frelick to 1st.12–8
9Blake Perkins walks. Jackson Chourio scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.12–7
8David Hamilton homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.12–6
7Jackson Chourio homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores.12–5
7Willy Adames singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Rafael Devers scores.12–3
7Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Bauers. Drew Gilbert scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.11–3
7Eric Haase hits a grand slam (4) to center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Bryce Eldridge scores. Matt Chapman scores.10–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.