Phillies at Brewers
Last play · Justin Crawford strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
PHI 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+209 / -259
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (13) on a line drive to left center field. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores. (inning 5) — +12% Brewers
6Jackson Chourio singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Joey Ortiz scores.0–6
5Jake Bauers homers (13) on a line drive to left center field. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores.0–5
2Christian Yelich grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper.0–2
1William Contreras doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Christian Yelich scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
