Phillies at Brewers
Last play · Brandon Marsh grounds out to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Brewers100%
PHI 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 4 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Blake Perkins homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Gary Sánchez scores. Luis Rengifo scores. (inning 4) — +21% Brewers
4Blake Perkins homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Gary Sánchez scores. Luis Rengifo scores.0–4
1Jackson Chourio homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
