Phillies at Brewers
PHI9–
MIL8Last play · Sal Frelick flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Brewers0%
PHI 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 3 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Edmundo Sosa scores. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 6) — -28% Phillies
8Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Luis Rengifo scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.9–8
8Christian Yelich out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Sal Frelick scores.9–7
8Andrew Vaughn walks.9–6
8Brandon Marsh singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.9–5
7Jackson Chourio homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores.8–5
6Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Derek Hill scores.8–3
6J.T. Realmuto homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Edmundo Sosa scores. Bryson Stott scores.7–3
6Bryson Stott doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Brandon Marsh scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.