Guardians at Brewers
Last play · Gabriel Arias strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CLE 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 1 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Garrett Mitchell homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — +31% Brewers
7Garrett Mitchell homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
7Gabriel Arias singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Stuart Fairchild scores. Gabriel Arias to 2nd.1–1
4Brice Turang homers (11) on a line drive to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
