Guardians at Brewers
Last play · David Fry flies out to right fielder Sal Frelick.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CLE 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 4 – 7 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daniel Schneemann hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Travis Bazzana scores. Kyle Manzardo scores. Brayan Rocchio scores. (inning 4) — -26% Guardians
8Cooper Pratt singles on a line drive to right fielder David Fry. Sal Frelick scores. Blake Perkins to 3rd.4–9
8Andrew Vaughn doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. William Contreras scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd.4–8
4Jackson Chourio homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. David Hamilton scores.4–7
4Daniel Schneemann hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Travis Bazzana scores. Kyle Manzardo scores. Brayan Rocchio scores.4–5
2Brice Turang doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Christian Yelich scores.0–5
2Christian Yelich singles on a line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. Cooper Pratt scores. Christian Yelich to 2nd.0–4
1Sal Frelick doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Petey Halpin. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores.0–3
1Christian Yelich homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
