Cubs at Brewers
Last play · Dansby Swanson flies out to center fielder Garrett Mitchell.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CHC 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 0 MIL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+207 / -257
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Garrett Mitchell homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 6) — +34% Brewers
8Christian Yelich doubles (10) on a fly ball to left fielder Ian Happ, deflected by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Cooper Pratt scores.2–6
8Seiya Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–5
7William Contreras homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jackson Chourio scores.1–5
6David Hamilton triples (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Cooper Pratt scores.1–3
6Garrett Mitchell homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Bauers scores.1–2
5Seiya Suzuki homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
