Reds at Brewers
Last play · Elly De La Cruz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CIN 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 0 MIL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Frelick scores. (inning 8) — +34% Brewers
8Joey Ortiz homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Frelick scores.3–5
7Brice Turang homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
6Sal Frelick walks. Christian Yelich scores. Jake Bauers to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher Chase Petty.3–2
6Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Andrew Vaughn scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd.3–1
5Elly De La Cruz homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Edwin Arroyo scores.3–0
1Dane Myers doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Spencer Steer scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
