Cubs at Brewers
Last play · Garrett Mitchell grounds out, first baseman Michael Busch to pitcher Vince Velasquez.
Win probability
Brewers0%
CHC 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 2 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner scores. (inning 6) — -28% Cubs
9Michael Conforto homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.8–2
7Alex Bregman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Matt Shaw scores.7–2
6Ian Happ homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner scores.6–2
6Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.3–2
5Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Blake Perkins scores.2–2
4Seiya Suzuki homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Matt Shaw scores.2–1
1Jackson Chourio homers (11) on a line drive to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
