Cubs at Brewers
CHC4–
MIL3Last play · Gary Sánchez grounds into a double play, third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Garrett Mitchell out at 2nd. Gary Sánchez out at 1st.
Win probability
Brewers0%
CHC 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. (inning 10) — -29% Cubs
10Garrett Mitchell walks. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio to 3rd. Brice Turang to 2nd.4–3
10Christian Yelich singles on a ground ball to right fielder Justin Dean. Joey Ortiz scores. Christian Yelich to 2nd.4–2
10Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.4–1
10Michael Busch walks. Justin Dean scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd. Alex Bregman to 2nd.2–1
7Matt Shaw walks.1–1
2Gary Sánchez homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.