Reds at Brewers
Last play · Ivan Johnson strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CIN 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 6 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd. (inning 4) — +17% Brewers
8Jackson Chourio homers (12) on a line drive to left center field.2–7
6Sal Stewart doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–6
5Jake Bauers homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.1–6
4Jackson Chourio singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Sal Frelick scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Christian Yelich to 2nd.1–5
4Joey Ortiz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd.1–4
4Sal Frelick singles on a fly ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.1–2
2Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jake Bauers scores.1–1
1Sal Stewart homers (16) on a line drive to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
