Reds at Brewers
Last play · JJ Bleday strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CIN 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+178 / -219
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Garrett Mitchell triples (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Matt McLain. Andrew Vaughn scores. (inning 7) — +22% Brewers
7Gary Sánchez walks.2–4
7Garrett Mitchell triples (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Matt McLain. Andrew Vaughn scores.2–3
2Noelvi Marte homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Tyler Stephenson scores.2–2
1Jake Bauers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ivan Johnson. Brice Turang scores.0–2
1William Contreras grounds out, second baseman Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Spencer Steer. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
