Reds at Brewers
Last play · Garrett Mitchell lines out to second baseman Matt McLain.
Win probability
Brewers0%
CIN 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 5 – 1 MIL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+178 / -219
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Trevino homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Noelvi Marte scores. (inning 4) — -18% Reds
8TJ Friedl singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Matt McLain scores. Jose Trevino to 3rd.7–2
7TJ Friedl homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
6Brice Turang doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jackson Chourio scores.5–2
5Garrett Mitchell homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.5–1
4Jose Trevino homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Noelvi Marte scores.5–0
4Noelvi Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. JJ Bleday scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.2–0
1Sal Stewart homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
