Mets at Brewers
Last play · A.J. Ewing strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers100%
NYM 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+183 / -224
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn homers (3) on a line drive to center field. Garrett Mitchell scores. (inning 3) — +9% Brewers
8Jorge Polanco singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Bauers. Bo Bichette scores.3–8
8Francisco Lindor grounds out, first baseman Andrew Vaughn to pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. Juan Soto scores. Bo Bichette to 3rd.2–8
6Joey Ortiz homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Jake Bauers scores. Cooper Pratt scores.1–8
3Andrew Vaughn homers (3) on a line drive to center field. Garrett Mitchell scores.1–5
3Juan Soto grounds into a double play, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop Cooper Pratt to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Francisco Alvarez scores. A.J. Ewing out at 2nd. Juan Soto out at 1st.1–3
2Cooper Pratt homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
1Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to right fielder A.J. Ewing. Brice Turang scores.0–2
1Brice Turang doubles (24) on a line drive to right fielder A.J. Ewing. Jackson Chourio scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
