Mets at Brewers
Last play · A.J. Ewing grounds out, third baseman Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Brewers100%
NYM 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Garrett Mitchell scores. Andrew Vaughn scores. (inning 2) — +25% Brewers
9Francisco Alvarez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Tyrone Taylor scores.3–4
6Christian Yelich triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Joey Ortiz scores.2–4
5Brett Baty homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
2Christian Yelich singles on a line drive to left fielder Carson Benge. Joey Ortiz scores.1–3
2Joey Ortiz triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Garrett Mitchell scores. Andrew Vaughn scores.1–2
2Marcus Semien homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
